Monday, October 20, 2008

the home stretch

There is an interesting divergence in the Presidential race during the past week. While most commentators have effectively crowned Obama, the polls themselves have been tightening, with an average margin of about 5 points but a range of roughly 3 to 7 in the most reliable polls. Should McCain knock even a point or two off this margin in the remaining 15 days--hardly an unprecedented performance--he might head into the election within the famed margin of error. Of course, no one knows what will happen, and I personally believe that the "Obama effect", i.e., the new registrations and enthusiasms generated by Obama's candidacy, while overwhelm the so-called "Bradley effect," the supposed unwillingness of white voters to choose a black candidate. But is it possible, just barely, that the experts have called things too soon?


Post a Comment

<< Home